Las Vegas (AP) – Stanley Cup Final The Florida Panthers are likely favored with their home ice advantage.
However, that advantage currently goes to Edmonton, which is why the Oilers are slight favorites to win as the series kicks off on Wednesday.
“Regardless of the circumstances, both teams have strong claims,” said Karry Shreeve, head of Hockey at Caesars Sportsbook. “Home ice plays a significant role. Statistically, teams that win Game 1 of the Stanley Cup hold a 75% chance of winning the series.”
The BetMGM Sportsbook has listed the Oilers as a -130 favorite for Game 1, aiming for that crucial 1-0 series lead. This marks the first time since Montreal in 1993 that Edmonton has been made a -125 favorite to claim the Stanley Cup.
The defending champion Florida Panthers defeated Edmonton in a seven-game series last year, with odds set at +105.
Christian Cipollini, trading manager at BetMGM, reported that about 55% of the wagered money is on the Oilers.
“We’re optimistic that this trend will hold,” Cipollini commented. “While many might lean towards the Oilers thanks to Connor McDavid, remember that this is a rematch; Florida emerged victorious last year.”
Hockey analyst Alex B. Smith, co-host of the Ice Guys Podcast, is backing the Oilers.
“Rematches in the Cup final are rare,” Smith noted. “When they do happen, you must ask: Are these teams better or worse than last year? I believe Florida is a stronger version of their previous squad. Zach Hyman is unavailable for this series. Connor Brown returns for Game 1, but his health remains uncertain.”
“I give the edge to Florida for their improved defense. They are a more cohesive unit than they were last year.”
McDavid’s Chance to Shine Again
Edmonton’s captain made history as the second player to receive the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP last season, despite being on the losing team.
McDavid leads this postseason with 26 points, well ahead of teammate Leon Draisaitl, and is a +100 favorite at BetMGM, allowing him a chance to carve out further accolades, even if the Panthers triumph.
“Will they really award McDavid the trophy for a losing effort again?” Cipollini pondered. “There’s a precedent for pointing to his scoring to justify a win, but it’ll be interesting to see how this unfolds once the game commences.”
Skinner’s Reliable Performance
Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner had previously been viewed as a potential liability on the team. His position seemed precarious when he was benched two games into the playoffs.
Nonetheless, Skinner is a key reason Edmonton is still competing. He has allowed one or zero goals in five of his last seven starts, including three shutouts.
Another impressive run could bolster Skinner’s odds, currently listed at +3500 by BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe.
“I wouldn’t have predicted his performance would be sustainable before,” Smith stated. “However, with just one series remaining, it certainly seems feasible now.”
Veteran Panthers Facing Fatigue
The Florida Panthers have made consecutive appearances in the Stanley Cup finals, raising the potential for fatigue to impact them. Yet, they are riding a wave of momentum, having won 10 of their last 11 playoff games.
Shreeve mentioned that metrics indicate the Panthers could win the Championship, although neither outcome is particularly favorable for Caesars; a Florida victory might be more beneficial.
“I’m not dissatisfied with our positioning,” Shreeve said. “I backed Florida last year, which was a tough outcome, but now, the conversation has shifted back to Edmonton this postseason.”
NBA Buzz Might Boost NHL Interest
This series is poised to go either way, with Oklahoma City favored over Indiana. In the NBA Finals, the potential allure could translate to increased betting interest in the Stanley Cup final.
“I believe it will enhance the NBA’s appeal with more enticing matchups,” Shreeve speculated. “A tightly contested series between Edmonton and Florida might keep things exciting, potentially leading to 6-7 games.”
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AP NHL Playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl
Source: apnews.com