Observing other systems has revealed that we face greater risks from the Sun than previously understood.
Earth is overdue for a devastating “superflare” from the Sun, which could disrupt satellites, power grids, and modern technology, scientists warn.
Superflares, bursting with over one octillion joules of energy, are 100 times more powerful than the infamous Carrington Event of 1859, which caused massive geomagnetic disruptions, including fires in telegraph offices.
An international team of researchers studied data from NASA’s Kepler space telescope, analyzing over 55,000 Sun-like stars between 2009 and 2013. Their findings suggest that such stars experience a superflare roughly once every century. Given the timeline, Earth is already overdue for one.
“We were surprised that Sun-like stars are prone to such frequent superflares,” said Dr. Sami Solanki, director at the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (MPS). Previous estimates suggested superflares occur only once every 1,000 to 10,000 years, but the new data indicates much higher frequencies.
‘Stark Reminder’
Dr. Natalie Krivova from the MPS stated that the findings serve as a “stark reminder” of the Sun’s potential for extreme solar events. The consequences of a modern-day Carrington-level flare could be catastrophic. Models predict a 71% chance of major impacts on the British power grid, along with mobile phone outages, disrupted GPS, and grounded flights.
Historical evidence of superflares has been found in prehistoric tree rings and glacial ice, with one of the most violent occurring in 775 AD. The effects of even smaller geomagnetic storms have been notable, such as Quebec’s nine-hour blackout in 1989 and Sweden’s power loss in 2003. More recently, a solar storm degraded Starlink satellites and enhanced auroras visible across Britain.
Improving Preparedness
To mitigate risks, experts stress the importance of forecasting solar flares. For instance, satellites can be temporarily switched off during extreme solar activity. The European Space Agency’s (ESA) Vigil satellite, set for a 2031 launch, aims to provide early warnings of solar storms by monitoring the Sun from a unique vantage point.
The MPS is actively developing key instruments for this mission, including the Polarimetric and Magnetic Imager, which will enhance early detection and mitigation strategies for solar-related risks.
The research was published in the journal Science.