Washington (AP) – Predictions are in for a busy Hurricane season starting Sunday, with storm and disaster experts increasingly apprehensive about potential chaos that could arise from swirling winds, tracking, and significant reductions in the relevant federal system.
Experts highlight large-scale staff reductions, travel and training limitations, and grant cutbacks that have manifested since President Donald Trump’s administration began. Both the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are crucial in hurricane preparedness, tracking, and forecasting.
“My worst fear is a catastrophic storm affecting an area already troubled by these disruptions from the Trump administration, where lives could be lost. This could happen in states like Florida or South Carolina,” stated one expert.
Officials from both NOAA and FEMA assure that they are preparing adequately.
Expert: Cuts Diminish FEMA
Urban Search and Rescue Task Force officials work in the aftermath of Hurricane Helen in Irwin, Tennessee on October 4, 2024 (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson, File)
Since Trump’s presidency began, approximately 2,000 full-time employees have left FEMA, resulting in a loss of nearly one-third of the agency’s full-time workforce amidst the enforced reductions in government efficiency (DOGE). Scholars studying emergency management are concerned about both limited capabilities and the “brain drain” of experienced staff.
Samantha Montano, an emergency management professor at Massachusetts Maritime Academy, notes that many of those who left were essential managers.
The agency is led by Chief David Richardson, a former Marine officer with a background in the Department of Homeland Security but lacking experience in disaster management. Effective emergency management demands knowledge of logistical processes and swift action.
This situation resonates with Craig Fugate, the former FEMA administrator during Hurricane Katrina, who emphasized that the government’s inadequacies were revealed during federal responses at that time. Fugate is particularly alarmed by the departure of seasoned disaster professionals from FEMA.
This spring, FEMA canceled several emergency management training sessions, transitioned others to online formats, limited travel, and adapted critical events like the National Hurricane Conference. Though some training has resumed, Brian Coon, the current Florida emergency management director, warns that continued staffing and training challenges could diminish federal competencies.
FEMA is also cutting disaster resilience programs. According to Lori Peek, director of the University of Colorado’s Natural Disaster Center, investing in resilience can yield savings of up to $13 for every dollar spent.
The federal government claims to be prepared for hurricane season, lasting until November.
“FEMA is transitioning from a bulky, DC-focused apparatus to a lean, deployable disaster response unit that empowers national actors to assist their citizens,” said Associate Administrator Geoff Harbaugh in an email. “FEMA is confidently ready for the hurricane season.”
FEMA’s Relations with the States
Dustin Holmes, second from the right, holds his hand with his girlfriend Haley Morgan.
Richardson has vowed to increase accountability to the states. He cautioned that agencies would only fulfill legal obligations, shifting more costs to the states.
However, Koon stated that states have not budgeted for FEMA’s changes, emphasizing that “the primary issue currently is uncertainty.”
Some states equipped to handle disasters, like Texas and Florida, have experienced staff ready to respond effectively. Yet, this raises concerns for less prepared states.
Typically, the federal government covers most costs in disaster events, often handling minor incidents fully. The Trump administration has stalled or rejected disaster declarations, leaving nine states awaiting some declarations, with others partially approved for up to two months last week.
“We’ve relied heavily on FEMA for an extended period, but the question remains: who will bridge this gap and how?” pondered Professor Jeannette Sutton from the University of Emergency Management in Albany.
Hurricane Center and NOAA Budget Cuts
Debris from homes destroyed by Hurricane Milton floated on August 31, 2023, in Horseshoe Beach, Florida. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)
NOAA, the parent organization of the National Weather Service, has faced significant job cuts despite some personnel returning. A troubling 20% vacancy rate has been reported at 121 local field offices, which are crucial in relaying national warnings into actionable local responses.
“The workforce has been drastically depleted,” remarked former NWS director Louis Uccellini.
Nevertheless, the National Hurricane Center—a pivotal entity for tracking and projecting hurricanes in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Caribbean—has remained unaffected by these cuts. Acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm, National Weather Service chief Ken Graham, and National Hurricane Center director Michael Brennan confirmed that the agency is fully staffed in Miami’s Storm Center to monitor oncoming storms.
For the first time this year, the hurricane center will incorporate artificial intelligence in its forecasting model, which is statistically shown to enhance prediction accuracy, according to Brennan.
“Our services have reached a new high,” Graham stated. “Our capability to serve this nation has improved significantly this year.”
However, outside the Hurricane Center, balloon releases have been reduced due to a staff shortage, with some areas seeing a decrease from bi-daily to single daily launches.
Brennan expressed hope that more balloon launches could resume if necessary.
A child’s swing surrounded by debris from a home destroyed by Hurricane Milton in Manasota Key, Florida, on October 12, 2024, still hangs from the tree (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)
Uccellini emphasized that balloon data is crucial for understanding steering currents and predicting weather patterns, highlighting plans to deploy additional balloons in the Great Plains to anticipate storm impacts as hurricanes approach.
“This year’s predictions may be less accurate due to limited balloon data,” cautioned former NOAA meteorologist Jeff Masters, now with Yale climate ties.
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Aoun Angueira reported from San Diego.
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Source: apnews.com