WASHINGTON (AP) – Anticipate a surge in record heat for the years ahead, driving the planet toward increasingly lethal, fiery, and uncomfortable extremes, as predicted by two leading global weather organizations.
There is an 80% likelihood that the planet will set a new annual temperature record within the next five years, potentially once again surpassing the global temperature threshold established a decade ago, according to a five-year projection released Wednesday by the World Meteorological Organization and the UK Met Office.
Miami City Outreach Specialist Ricky Reese collaborates with Bay Chao under the Miami-Dade County Homeless Trust to help manage high temperatures on May 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky, file)
“Although a higher global average temperature might seem abstract, it increasingly correlates with extreme weather events,” noted Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mwald, emphasizing that while it was not included in their calculations, such implications are evident.
As one-tenth of the globe experiences warming, human-caused climate change leads to more frequent and severe events, including heatwaves, droughts, floods, and intense hurricanes, as pointed out by Johann Lockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact in Germany, who was not directly involved in the study.
Firefighters watch as a helicopter drops water at the Pallisard Fire in Mandeville Canyon, Los Angeles on January 11, 2025 (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)
By the end of the decade, annual temperatures worldwide are expected to surpass the Paris Climate Agreement’s objective to restrict global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), as indicated by the two agencies. They predict that in addition to that, temperatures could reach two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.
There is an 86% probability that one of the next five years will exceed the 1.5 degrees mark, with a 70% likelihood of surpassing that global threshold within the same five-year timeframe.
The projections are derived from more than 200 simulations conducted by 10 global scientific centers.
Ice blocks are arranged for sale at food stalls in Ahmedabad, India on April 2, 2025.
Just a decade ago, predictions indicated a mere 1% chance of similar remote occurrences. And then, last year, it happened. This year, temperatures rose above two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, prompting similar forecasts.
“This isn’t what anyone hopes to see, but it aligns with scientific findings,” stated Hermanson. A 2-degree increase is a secondary threshold set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, which is now regarded as unlikely to be avoided.
While 2024 was technically recorded at 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times, it hasn’t crossed the Paris Agreement threshold measured over a 20-year period. When considering predictions for the upcoming decade, estimates indicate a rise from the mid-1800s of approximately 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit).
A vendor rests near fans on a hot afternoon at his shop in Market 4, Asuncion, Paraguay on January 17, 2025 (AP Photo/Jorge Saenz, File)
“The upcoming five years are forecasted to average above 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, resulting in an increased risk of severe heatwaves for many populations. This can lead to more fatalities, and significant impacts on health unless measures are taken to better shield people from extreme heat. Additionally, more intense wildfires are likely, as noted by climate director Richard Betts from the UK Met Office and professor at the University of Exeter.
The Arctic continues to heat at a rate 3.5 times faster than the global average, contributing to accelerated ocean rise, as Hewitt highlighted.
Typically, when global temperatures rise, it’s akin to ascending an escalator, while the natural El Niño cycles create periodic jumps in temperatures. Scientists observe that lately, these El Niño fluctuations have only added to the progressive warming, rather than reversing it.
“Record-breaking temperatures will soon be regarded as the new normal,” asserted Rob Jackson, a climate scientist at Stanford University.
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Source: apnews.com